Explained: The 2014 fall of Russian Rouble, and Negative rate of Swiss National Bank (Schweizerische Nationalbank)

Indonesian: Kenapa Ruble Rusia jatuh, dan kenapa adanya Bunga bank negatif dari Bank sentral Swiss (sehingga Franc Swiss ikut turun)

Postingan ini sengaja saya ketik dalam bahasa inggris agar masyarakat dunia bisa ikut membaca, untuk versi indonesia, bisa di google translate atau hubungi saya, nanti saya beri penjelasan dalam bahasa indonesia.

I'm actually a medical student, but born with interest in monetary science. I may not be a person with particular degree in economy, but self learning of currency since 1st Grade, and international politics since Junior High School, i think i can help to make an explanation in simple words to dummies who may have a huge question... what's with russian economy bla ..bla ...bla ??? Asking an PhD economy expert or so will never help them as i guarantee dummies will just floating around without direction if required to listen and understand such level of explanation. Let me do a quick easy explanation.

Despite extensive reading and data searching, anyone who have an argument with my post or opinion is more than welcome to message/ comment it, so we all can have a better understanding.

These are the chain of events that leads to the current situation as of 27 December 2014.

1. Russian reserves increased when oil price hiked.

Russian economy is highly dependent on oil, as 70% of it's export is oil. During the hike of oil, especially from 2010 onwards, where crude oil priced even reached US$110/ barrel, Russian Gold reserve is highly increased. Money brings power, with more money, the Russians think they have more power and although they do realize the west is more than excited to put economic sanctions should Russia do something controversial, they're confident their hugh reserves are enough to combat any serious impact resulting from western sanctions. At it's peak, Russian reserve is thought to be above $500 billion.

Russian Rouble notes. (courtesy: www.presstv.ir)

2. The Confidence in disrupting Ukraine

The Crimean crisis in 2014 starts at February 2014, when then president, Viktor Yanukovych poised to make a relations to the Russians in a multi billion dollar deals, instead of the West (Eurozone-NATO-US). Enough is enough for Ukrainian public as they fed up with economic standstill from vast corruption, etc. They blame the Russians in manipulating the (certain) politicians that Ukraine didn't thrive well. Ukrainians prefer a better relations to the west, not russia. Viktor's action caused a civil unrest which eventually lead to his impeachment and he fled to Russia.

Ukraine's then president, Viktor Yanukovych. (courtesy: consortiumnews.com)

3. Russia invades Crimea.

Ukrainian public actions is viewed as a thread to Russia's potentially billion dollar deals. Crimean peninsula, a region of Ukraine, is notably have more ethnic Russians than Ukraine. They prefer a better relations to Russia. Using the reason to protect the interest of majority Russian ethnics in Crimea, Kremlin backs a pro-russian rebels which cause somewhat a civil war in crimea. However, Russian never confirmed their interventions in Ukraine. In a dummies view, it's like Russia says "Hey, if you don't give us the deals and get closer to us, we'll make a chaos in your country".

4. The western Sanctions

Although Russia deny any involvement in Ukraine, the whole world knows it. The west (incl US) immediately impose economic sanctions to pressure Russia out of invading crimea. Be honest, no one do that for free, it's because the west also expect to get those billion dollar deals and, in other hand, to decrease russian influence in the international world.

The sanctions did cause somewhat damage to Russian economy, however, they already anticipated this beforehand and their confidence with colossal international reserves still makes them survived, although Rouble (Russian Currency) did losing some points to US$.

some refenrences: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2836809/From-Vlad-worse-snubbed-airport-sit-dinner-shunted-edge-family-photo-condemned-world-leaders-s-no-wonder-President-Putin-Russian-leave-G20-summit.html

5. The tumble of Oil Price

Following chain of events in the oil market, suddenly Oil price lowers down at the 4th quarter of 2014. From what was $100+/barrel, it drops down to $58/ barrel. Since Russian export relies heavily on oil, this 50% drop hits Russia hard. They never expect the oil price to collapse, and they never prepared if it happend. They have a confidence their reserve is enough power to stop the impact from western sanctions, but this (oil fall) is beyond everyone in Russia's expectations.

For more detail explanation why the oil price tumbles, read this:

http://www.oil-price.net/en/articles/oil-price-drops-on-oversupply.php

6. The Russian International Reserve - Rouble crashes - Shocking Interest Rate

The combination of western sanctions and unexpected falling oil price results in a heavy economic disease they never predict and prepared for. Decrease in export means a losing ratio against import. This means more of Russian wealth is going out (because import means they spent money to other country out). This leads to a serious dent to Russian roubles. Things get worst when trust against the rouble decrease causing mass exchange from rouble to other currency. Logically, when everyone distrust rouble and wish to swap it with other  safer option (eg: US$) meant that more rouble is in the market and US demand increases. As we know in basic economy, lower demand combines with oversupply means a decrease in price, in this case, the Rouble is losing ground against the US as well as other major currencies.

As more people swapped Rouble for others (notably Euro, GBP, USD, CHF) rouble gets more weaken and thus leads to many shops increase their prices, that means increase of inflation (it means same amount of money can only buy less of items). This leads to panic buying, people flock to shops to buy anything they can just to get rid of rouble.

Russians queue to withdraw their money in 1998's default (courtesy: AP)

Russia must stop this or their economy will collapse if export continues to decline rapidly while import is still. A disastrous of level of exchange rate can cause the rouble worthless and the Russia can be in a deep trouble. When they lose money, they lose power.

In a day in December 2014, the rouble steeps so rapidly it even reaches 80 Rouble to the Dollar!! (normally is around 35 rouble/ $). This event leads to the central bank to hike the interest rate from 10,5% to 17% the next day!!!! This is a desperate attempt of the Russians to stop people from discarding their rouble and tempt them with whopping rates in hope they will chose to keep rouble in their bank accounts. However, this event leads people to be more panicked as high central bank rate indirectly means economy is getting worse. So in another desperate dash to save rouble and gain public trust, the Russians eventually used some 17% of their international reserve just to buy back the roubles public had thrown in the market. Russian reserves rapidly decline from what was a glorious mighty $500 Billion +, down to $398 Billion. This attempt i think it works for now (as of 27 December 2014) as the halt the tumble of the rouble (is stays around 58 rouble/ US$) and i think public trust at least didn't get any lower, for now.

An exchage rate board in Moscow. Dec 2014. (courtesy: theguardian.com)

about the reserve fall: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-25/ruble-defense-curtails-russian-reserves-by-15-7-billion-in-week.html

But remember, decreasing reserve can cause less international investor's confidence to invest there (economist may call it as Bond Credit Rating), and making revenues under pressure for the Russians.

7. The Swiss National Bank's (SNB) sensational move.

Swiss, is long referred as a save heaven for investors. The currency is relatively stable, as since the politic is known for a long history of stability. During the mass dumping of rouble (converting it to other currency), many wealthy russians opted to buy colossal amount of Swiss Francs (CHF). Now, that means a surge increase of CHF demand. Remember a basic concept, when demand increases, price will increase. In this case, the Francs is getting some strength. A good currency power is nice, but when your currency is way to expensive, it can lead the world to buy less of your goods, meaning that Export may decrease and economy growth can stall. SNB must find a way to weaken it's currency to a tolerable level for the economic world. So in order to stop the russians from buying CHF, they must make CHF less attractive, how? They make the central bank rate -0.75%

Negative bank rates means that if you keep your money in the bank, instead of getting a small extra cash in interest, your money will vaporize a little by little, taken away by the bank (this is what -% means). So this will make people felt a loss in someways if keeping CHF. As far as i know, this is the first time ever for a bank to impose a negative bank rates. Usually they just do 0%. But i'm yet to research if there's any other central bank in history to impose negative rate, and does this SNB sensation action had do what it was intended for (to lower CHF rate to a considerable level for economic growth).

Swiss National Bank HQ.

Ok, so that's all for now i can explain. Keep reading the news guys, i strongly recommend Bloomberg. To ease you in understanding, if possible next time i'll be back to insert some graphs, more reference links, and mind map to this post. Keep up with my updates/revised edition and please don't hesitate to comment if you have a differences in opinion regarding the chain of events, or have something to add.

Thanks!

Trip Report: KBS part 3

Nah maaf ini bagian ketiga diketik agak lama setelah part 1-2. Harus diakui setelah selang beberapa bulan mungkin ada memori yang terluput sedikit tapi akan tetap aku gambarkan sebisanya (seingetnya).

Dari kandang beruang, dibalik deretan tsb adalah kandang harimau. Kita tau bahwa berita harimau KBS sebelumnya ckup mengenaskan. Salah satunya harimau bernama Melani, yang kondisinya demikian menyedihkan sehingga meski akhirnya di evakuasi ke fasilitias lain, namun akhirnya tewas juga. Namun pada kunjungan kali ini, harimaunya sih terlihat ckup baik, setidaknya mengaum2 sendiri sehingga menarik perhatian segelintir pengunjung untuk mendekat. kebeteluan krn lensa saya juga terbatas kemampuannya, foto yg saya dapat tidak terlalu signifikan untuk menggambarkan kondisi harimaunya. Sebenarnya bentuk kandang harimau seperti ini sudah tidak zaman. Semestinya lebih baik bila dirubah dengan kaca seperti di Singapore Zoo, atau berilah suatu lapangan dalam yang seperti jurang dan diberi pagar saja, karena bentuk kerangkeng bgini tentunya merusak estetika dan menggangu pemandangan.

berlanjut dari kandang harimau, kemudian melewati kandang monyet yg tidak terlalu saya perhatikan karena tidak terlalu tertarik (dan hasil fotonya kbtulan jelek sekali) lalu ada melewati kandang berang2 yang hewannya seperti tiduran gak jelas. kondisi makan mereka buruk skali (maaf ternyata fotonya hilang, tapi kondisi makannya sama dengan pelikan). Ada juga kandang kelelawar. Selanjutnya ada kandang kerbau dan burung onta. nah burung onta waktu itu kalau tidak salah ada 1 atau 2 ekor, tapi yang pasti ada 1 yg cukup dekat ke pinggir pagar sehingga kami bisa selfie bersama disitu. Meski scr umum kondisi burung onta nya ckup baik namun saya perhatikan bahwa di matanya ada semacam katarak yang sepertinya tidak diobati. Sedangkan untuk kandangnya cukup luas kok. Rasanya untuk 5-7 ekor pun ckup.

Salah satu pojok istirahat. Tapi karena hari biasa dan sepi, kedai2nya tutup

Kandang Harimau.

Burung Onta.

Nah setelah mereka tadi, selanjutnya ada icon KBS, yakni Komodo. mereka ditempatkan dalam Pits (semacam lapangan yg agak dalam dan dibatasi tembok dan bentuknya seperti jurang). Tidak terlalu ingat ada berapa tapi kira" 20an lebih. Ukurannya macam2, ada yg sedang-besar. Tapi saya pribadi gk terlalu suka kadal sih, jdi ya udah liat bentar terus lanjut.

Lanjutnnya adalah icon dari betapa mengenaskannya KBS, yakni Pelikan. Kandang satu ini terkenal dimedia massa sebagai contoh overload (kelebihan jumlah penghuni) yang terjadi di KBS. Bayangkan, ukuran kandang kira" 20 meter x 5 meter, namun diisi lebih dari 100 burung pelikan yang sangat besarrr..... (bahkan menurut media massa dikabarkan lebih dari 150 ekor). Sebagian burung tsb cukup besar seukuran anak SMP. Penuhnya luar biasa, apalagi bau nya. Kasian banget memang, kaya mau terbang pun susah. Ada beberapa tmpat bertengger tapi paling cuma muat 15, sisanya terpaksa dibawah. Yang ironis, kita tau burung pelikan adalah burung air yang makan dengan menyerok ikan di air dan suka berenang di air, lucunya untuk sekira 150 burung besar tersebut, hanya disediakan kolam kecil kira"diameternya 3m. Sedangkan pemberian makan jauh dari layak. Kenapa? pertama, bukannya ikan akan mereka serok dari air, burung hrus mengambil sendiri ikan di lantai tanah mrk yg becek dan jorok, saya yakin dalam usaha mrka makan, mereka ikut menyerok sebagian tanah. kedua, ikannya ikan busuk!!! liat saja difoto, ikan nila yg aslinya hitam sudah sampe putih begitu, mata ikan pun sudah putih busuk, sungguh tak layak, jangankan dimakan, disentuh saja tidak menjijikan. Saya tak akan kaget bila ada burung yang mati, namun dugaan saya tak akan terlalu di ekspose kalau ada yg mati, selain jumlahnya luar biasa banyak, mreka bukan spesies yg terancam.

Ikon KBS: Komodo

Tampak umum dari kandang Pelikan

Perhatikan ukuran pelikan yg besar2

Kolam dengan diameter sekitr  3m untuk para pelikan jelas tidak memadai.

Perhatikan sendiri kondisi ikan untuk makanan mereka... ikan busuk

Perjalanan selanjutnya mendekati akhir taman, dimana terdapat ada taman yg sangat luas dengan pohon besar dan dikepung danau, trnyata itu tempat terbuka untuk semacam kera yang agak besar dan berisik. Cukup rimbun untuk kita duduk disekitarnya dan menikmati, dan menarik karena suara2 teriakan mereka yg menyerupai di hutan. Sebenarnya masih ada sejumlah hewan lain yg belum saya lihat karena teman2 saya kecapekan, tapi ini cukuplah untuk mewakili gambaran umum KBS.

Demikianlah Trip Report KBS ini selesai.... hehehe
Saran saya, terlepas dari segala macam pemberitaan, cobalah kunjungi KBS melihat2 tak ada salahnya, untuk kita melihat dan menilai sendiri, karena pemberitaan bagaimanapun, belum tentu sama dengan pikiran kita bila melihatnya sendiri. Seperti ketika saya mau mengunjungi, teman2 saya kaget apa tak ad tempat lain sehingga melihat KBS? Dan waktu saya kesana, saya dilihat seperti Turis asing.... tapi puas, saya tak menyesal kesana, dan mungkin akan kembali lagi untuk melihat lebih detail.

Mungkin kita akan menjadi lebih kritis ketika melihat kondisinya, tapi Rp. 15.000 untuk melihat2 Kebun Binatang terkenal (buruk) ini tak ada salahnya, apalagi mereka skrang dalam manajemen baru dibawah tekad bu risma (walikota sby) utk menyelamatkannya. Lumayan bila uang kita bisa dipakai utk brkontribusi.

Kandang terbuka Kera besar, gtw namanya apa. Didekat pintu keluar.

Trip Report: KBS (Kebon Binatang Surabaya a.k.a Zoo of Death) PART 2

lanjutan setelah yang penyu tadi..

nah perjalanan kemudian dilanjutkan masuk ke gedung akuarium tadi yg lbih mirip rumah hantu. didepannya ada 2 kolam ikan, satu berisi ikan2 konsumsi biasa (Gurami, Bawal hitam, dkk) sedang satunya berisi 2 ekor ikan Arapaima (ikan air tawar terbesar di dunia yang native dari amazon). Kondisinya kedua kolam sih cukup baik. Kolam Arapaima juga termasuk bersih. Mungkin konsumsi Arapaima aku rasa kurang pas karena warna mereka merah kusam, normalnya merah cerah yg didapat dari diet kepiting, udang, dll.

Arapaima Gigas

(bawah) pintu masuk gedung akuarium

Masuk gedung ini, ada 3 akuarium berisi ikan Arwana Brazil, Arawana Irian, dan Parrot fish. Kecuali yg Irian, 2 akuarium itu keruh. Slanjutnya ada pilihan jalan ke kanan/kiri. Ke kiri berisi wilayah ikan laut, ke kanan ikan air tawar. Kondisi dalam gedung sangat mengenaskan, banyak kerusakan dimana2. Akuarium banyak yg sudah retak namun bukannya diganti, melainkan ditambal dengan lakban hitam (lihat foto) selain itu juga ada bbrp akuarium yang pecah sehingga dibiarkan kosong. Namun kesan pertama yg anda dapatkan begitu masuk bukan masalah akuariumnya, melainkan betapa angker tmpt tsb. Sangat gelap, pengap, dan sunyi...benar2 eerie feeling. Aku mulai dengan yg air laut. Ikannya tidak banyak, airnya juga sangat keruh. Bila diatas akuarium terdapat petunjuk gambar ikan apa saja yang ada disitu, jgn harapkan andai menjumpai ikan itu, akuarium tsb paling hanya berisi 1-2 ikan. Akuarium Moray Eel termasuk yg kasihan, ukurannya tidak sesuai lagi dengan ikannya yg sudah besar. Selain itu, seluruh akuarium dipenuhi karang mati. Perawatan disini terkesan sangat tidak professional bahkan setara dengan anak SD yg sedang belajar membuat akuarium. (maaf foto2nya kurang fokus, karena suasana sgt gelap dan tidak pakai tripod)

Akuarium Moray eel. Apa kesanmu?

tampak dari dalam segmen air laut. inipun agak terang krn settingan kamera.

Kondisi salah satu ikan laut.

Selanjutnya jalan ke air tawar. Disini kondisinya tidak lebih baik. Akuariumnya juga pecah dimana2, airnya sangat keruh bahkan sulit melihat sejumlah ikan. Pada beberapa akuarium, ikannya terlalu over crowded (kaya anak SD pas mau beli ikan banyak2) sirkulasi air juga tidak jelas. Sedang di akuarium lain, ada yang berisi ikan sangat besar bahkan nyaris seukuran akuarium itu, tentu tidak muat, ikan ini hanya bisa diam saja gak bisa gerak kemana2. Selain itu kacanya sudah tua sekali sehingga buram.

Reparasi amatir akuarium pecah (ikan oskar) 

Akuarium Cichilds, terlalu banyak ikan dan airnya kotor.

Patin Albino. Akuariumnya sudah jls tidak muat.

Kondisi tembok dalam gedung.

Kemudian kami keluar gedung, lalu ambil lajur kanan dimana akan ke daerah buaya2. Airnya keruh, tapi stau saya tidak jadi soal. Secara umum kondisi buaya cukup baik namun ada beberapa sampah di air yg berpotensi dilahap dan mengakibatkan penyakit pada buaya. Kalo dibandingkan dengan bonbin luar negri, air mereka seharusnya bersih agar pengunjung bisa melihat jelas. Terlepas dari itu, kondisi mereka OK2 saja.. juga ada beberapa false gharial.

Sampah plastik di kolam False Gharial

tak jauh dari situ, ada gedung lagi. Rupanya berisi museum hewan mati yang diawetkan. Kondisi awetannya sih cukup baik, di ruang kaca besar juga, namun yg jdi soal adalah suasananya: gelap dan pengap. Mereka yg tidak kuat mental sebaiknya jgn masuk drpd ketemu makhluk lain.. hahahaha
Nah tapi rupanya tidak cuma itu, ada ruang kaca berisi hewan semacam Guinea Pig, Landak, dan agak mirip Meerkat tapi gtw apa itu. Kondisi kandang kaca mereka benar2 mengerikan, luar biasa kotor dan gelap, padahal hewan2 ini ya harus kena sinar matahari agar sehat. Ini perlu perbaikan segera...

Kandang landak

Lepas dari sini, saya kemudian melihat2 kandang luar dimana ada beberapa beruang, harimau, kelelawar, berang2, sejumlah jenis monyet, dll. Yang monyet tidak saya kunjungi karena memang tidak ada interest dgn primata tapi sjauh yg terlihat mereka cukup bahagia dengan luasnya kandang mereka kok. Untuk beruang dan harimau, kondisi mereka sudah cukup baik, sangat kontras dengan kabar kondisi mereka yang saya baca di media2 baik lokal maupun internasional beberapa bulan sebelumnya. Kandangnya sih luas dan bersih, secara fisik juga hewannya baik. Namun problem ada pada kandang berang2, selain sempit dan ditumbuhi tanaman liar gak karuan, makanan mereka menjadi perhatian saya. Mereka diberi makan ikan nila (campuran juga, ukuran kecil sekitar tangan anak2) yg sudah membusuk dan berceceran ditanah/air. Bagaimana saya tau sudah busuk? Bila ikan nila yg aslinya hitam sudah putih total dan matanya putih susu atau copot dan berbau, kira2 ikan segar apa busuk? (Contohnya ada di foto ikan makanan pelikan nanti)

Beruang Madu

Trip Report: Kunjungan iseng ke KBS (Kuburan ups..Kebon Binatang Surabaya). PART 1

"Emangnya gak ada tempat lain yang lebih bagus??" Pertanyaan ini saya terima dri beberapa org ketika aku crita mau ke KBS sama temen2. Bahkan temanku pas ijin ke ortunya, mendapat respon yg sama.. wkwkwk

Asal mulanya ide ke KBS ini sih karena ada dorongan kuat mau jalan2, bosen sih dirumah mana abis pekan ujian dan lagi dapet libur singkat, h-1 mulai ngeospekin anak baru juga. Kumanfaatin deh jalan2 yg deket bin murah, skalian belajar foto. Penasaran juga slama ini cuma baca brita negatif ttg KBS, nah kalo gak liat sndiri gak afdol kan...

Perjalanan ini dilakukan pada Jumat, 22 Agustus 2014. Sepii..enak banget, kira2 cuma sekitar 150-200 orang pengunjung kali pas itu diseantero kebon. Karena luas, sayangnya bbrp temanku sudah tidak kuat muter2 lagi jadi tripku tidak sempurna (misal blom lihat yg kuda nil). Tapi yg kulihat sudah cukup mewakili kok, trutama untuk yg penasaran gimana sih isi KBS skrg... secara umum, taman KBS itu bersih, luas, dan nyaman utk istirahat,, beneran ini. Nah, yg jadi problematika nya adalah kehidupan satwanya.. kandang yang tidak memadai (apalgi utk pertumbuhan pd bbrp hewan) serta konsumsi mrka,dll... berikut laporannya.

diluar dugaanku, buersih dan rapi, cocoklah untuk pacaran disini.

Patung paling bingung ini..ntah maunya buaya apa iguana. wkwkwk

(atas dan bawah) salah satu view jalan dalam KBS. Bersih dan nyaman kok.

Tiketnya murah pol! Cuma Rp.15,000,- trus dapet tiket gelang, belok kanan itu mulai dah daerah burung2. Secara umum, burung2 disini cukup baik kondisinya. Makanan mreka yg berupa buah2an maupun jagung terlihat ckup dan kalo aku lihat sih, makananny okelah, bagus2 buahnya. Tapi kandangny kotor skali, burung mana yg gak sedih punya rumah gitu..pasrah ya. baunya juga lumayan menyengat, pada bbrp kandang, gak akan betah kita lama2, namun pd bbrp kandang lain kondisinya bersih dan gak bau (misal merak). Karena ukuran mrka kcil, ya itung2 masi cukup luas kok hunian mreka, apalagi ada bbrp kandang yg cuma di huni 1 burung (gak tau sisanya mati, kabur, dicuri, lalala)

(atas) gak tau burung apa ini, tapi kondisinya ga buruk gimana sih, masi okelah. bulunya ad rontok2. (bawah) itu dia tmpat makan si burung, kasian betul. tpi gpp, udah gak dipake, skrg digantung buahnya.

Burung Nuri. Cukup sehat yang satu ini

Hayo ada yg tau burung apa ini? ada di uang kertas Rp.100 kuno yg edisi sebelum perahu pinisi.

(atas) Gak tau burung apa, smacam toucan gitu. (bawah) Burung nuri yg lain. Warnanya masi cerah bagus.

Setelah melihat daerah unggas2 ini, sebagai pecinta aquatic, saya mengajak teman2 ke daerah akuarium (berdasarkan peta). Agak unik sedikit rupanya, setelah masuk yg gerbang "akuarium", bila lurus kedepan akan ada 1 bangunan yang orang awam akan mengira itu rumah hantu padahal itu gedung akuarium-nya, sedangkan kiri-kanan nya ada jalan sedikit nah itu adalah daerah reptil (perlu diingat ini masih suasana outdoor, indoornya cuma kalo lurus ke bangunan itu), dan kami putuskan untuk melihat reptil dulu sebelum masuk ke "rumah hantu" wkwkwk.

Pada sisi kiri, ada sejumlah "ruangan kaca"(sekitar 4-5) dengan ukuran sekitar 2 x 3 m pada sisi kiri (jadi abis belok kiri dari gerbang, itu ada jalan kecil kirinya kaca kanannya ad kandang kawat) dan sisi kanan ada kandang kawat yg sudah sangat berkarat dan brantakan. Selain itu, dijalan kecil ini (antara kaca-kadang kawat) bagian atasnya ditumbuhi tanaman yg berakar panjang sehingga cuma bayi 1 tahun yg kalo jalan gak akan kena akar2 yg sngat menggangu ini (sayangnya saya lupa foto lorong ini) Rupanya dari ruang itu hanya 1 yg terhuni, oleh seekor kobra yang cukup besar. Kandang dia sih agak kotor, tapi saya kurang paham kandang yg pas untuk ular harusnya gimana. Nah kalo yg kandang kawat disisi kanan itu, rupanya berisi iguana, kondisi mereka jelek...duri2nya udah gak karuan, warna mereka udah gak hijau malah coklat kusam,dll. 

Kandang Kobra. Bukan hasil foto terbaik, tapi foto ini bisa menggambarkan situasi dalam kadang tsb.

Sekumpulan iguana yg sakno pol. Mulut itu gtw luka knpa, brantem atau gigit kawat mau nyoba kabur dah putus asa hidup di KBS... wish you the best guys!

Nah bila kita jalan terus melewati mereka hingga ke ujung lorong, akan kita temui kandang penyu!! Bagus2 pikirku pas melihat sign tulisan penyu. Namun setelah anda melihat sendiri, pasti anda setuju dgn aku kalo penyu ini merupakan salah satu hewan yang kondisinya paling menyedihkan seantero KBS. Kolamnya tidak luas, sekitar 4 x 3 m kira2. Yang jadi masalah, airnya hitam total, daun berguguran, jorok skali. Ditambah lagi ndak ada sirkulasi air. Penyu ini berenang di air yang berisi penuh bakteri skaligus kotoran mereka sendiri. Saking hitamnya air, anda gak mungkin liat penyu nya kalo lagi nyelam ) meski kedalaman air gak ada 1 meter. Penyu nya cuma visible kalo dipinggir2 pas dangkal, mereka ada sekitar 5 ekor mungkin. Kalo makanannya gak tau, gak liat juga. Tapi benar2 sedih kalo lihat kondisi penyu ini. Tak jauh dari situ (kalo abis gerbang terus kita belok kanan) ada 1 lagi kolam penyu jenis lain tapi kondisi nya sama parah, namun kolamnya lebih luas (6 x 4 m kira2) isinya mungkin sama atau lbih sedikit.

Kolam penyu dengan air hitam pekat bin jorok. Ditambah akar2 pohon ini membuat kesan berantakan yg mendalam.

(atas) Penyu cm terlihat kalo dipinggir yg dangkal. (bawah) Beberapa penyu yg terlihat lesu,  seolah menyesali nasibnya.

Kolam penyu yang satunya. Lebih luas namun kondisi tidak lebih baik

Everything has it's first: melihat org kesurupan, mendoakan seseorang, dan merasakan kuasa besar DOA

Saat sekarang saya mengetik postingan ini, saya berusia 21 tahun, dan selama saya hidup 21 tahun, saya tidak pernah melihat langsung orang kesurupan dan bila saya lihat di Tv, saya asumsikan itu palsu, maklum sudah kita ketahui TV Indonesia ini brani label "Reality Show" pdhl settingan. Apalagi saya seorang mahasiswa kedokteran yg sangat terlatih berpikir logis, tentu semua itu ada logikanya menurut saya, namun semua itu berubah total pada Kamis, 28 Agustus 2014, dan puncaknya Jumat, 29 Agustus 2014.... And this is my story that changes my mindset.

Nah semua ini dimulai ketika saya mendaftar menjadi panitia PRODAMMABA (Ospek universitas yg baik2 di univ hang tuah sby) sebagai pembimbing. Tapi sbgai anak FK dan ex-medis, tntu scra tidak langsung saya juga sbgai medis cadangan bila diperlukan. Prodam dilaksanakan 5 hari dari senin (25/8) - jumat (29/8). Selama Senin - Rabu semua lancar saya tetap sbgai pokbing/pmbimbing saja. 

First call saya untuk standby sebagai medis dimulai pada Kamis. Prodam kali ini diikuti sekira 1033 anak yg dibagi dalam 15 kelompok. Pokoknya kira2 tiap kelp berisi 70 anak dipandu 2 pokbing. Medis berkekuatan 9 orang. Kamis itu kami dijadwalkan untuk joy sailing atau naik kapal perang (maklum, universitas binaan TNI-AL sehingga bisa dong naik kapal perang di KOARMATIM hehehe). Karena ini termasuk gawi besar, satu kelp sebisanya dijaga 1 medis. Karena jelas tidak cukup, ada 2 kelp dgn pokbing FK yg disuruh rangkap (termasuk saya). Maka pagi hingga siang itu ber tur lah kami di KRI Teluk Banten (516). Sebenarnya saya sudah merasa agak angker sih dilambung kapal terutama di tempat penyimpanan tank. Tapi semua baik2 saja. Ketika perjalanan pulang, rupanya ada 1 anak di bus lain yg teriak2 seperti kesurupan dan begitu sampe balik diaula univ, diurus oleh rekan2 langsung dan kebetulan ada 2 anak panitia yg katanya bisa urus gituan... eh baru itu anak 1 beres, di luar aula kena lagi 1. Mumpung ada label medis dadakan ya aku kepo dikit aja masuk ruang medis liat2, wih serem sih liat org triak2 tapi masi biasa ajalah.. hehehe. Tapi aku kabur aja katany mrka kl deket2 bs ketularan..

Balik dr kapal banyak yg sakit, pingsan, sesek napas, bla3...jelas lah kecapekan, aplg kapal segitu disuru isi 1033 anak + panitia + pejabat kampus ya mana cukup... maka jadilah saya disuru rawat mrka semua termasuk d teras saking penuh ruang medis. Nah ketika itu diteras saya menjaga 2 org, satu pingsan tp udah siuman satuny batuk2 sesek napas dr pagi. Trs ak d kabari ad panitia 1 kena kesurupan, medis ud understaffed, ya aku yg lari2 tp ud tercover trnyata ya aku balik lg ke teras eh itu anak yg tadi batuk2 udah nyaris kemasukan juga, tp udah di handle (pijit2in, dibisikin gitu) sama 3 anak. aku bantu pegangin kepala anak itu trus iman dalam hatiku pengen doain tapi masi ragu krn belom tau apa2....aku tpi udah spontan ngo sm anak itu "Kamu gak akan kemasukan! Krn aku dekat dgn Tuhanku dan aku tau iblis gak brani mendekat makan kamu gak akan kemasukan!". singkat crita dia gak kemasukan setelah berjuang keras.... malam itu evaluasi sperti biasa, kami di wanti rekan2 mungkin jumat besok hrs siap dgn lbh byk kasus kesurupan krn acara dri pagi-malam. Malam itu d mobil pas otw pulang aku merasa mndapat panggilan iman dalam hati bahwa besok bila ada apa2, tugasku adalah berdoa untuk memuliakan nama Tuhanku. Aku 21 tahun menjadi kristen kdg rasanya blom prnah dipake Tuhan n aku doa spy bs jadi bejana Tuhan yg siap digunakan...

How God change my life step by step

{INTRODUCTION}

i'm not one of the tough guys u'll ever met.

Honestly, this post is created in my supposed study time late night. But i just feel something pushes me to type this before study because I believe He (Jesus Christ) had participated in a process to change me to be a better person, and it's not an option to study first,and what could possibly happened is i'm going to sleep and this post will never exists.

There's a string of different events He shaped me, but i'm going to tell a couple of it only.

Ok, so the first event is occured on early 2012, 3rd January to be exact. I'm a medical student in Surabaya where my university is revealed to use a "New" curriculum, Block based. where out of some 73 medical schools available in Indonesia, only 2 of it who adopt it. My school is navy-based school and they do kinda shortage in lecturers and cool stuffs compared to a top public universities. While the other college who adapts the block system is a top public college.

(PROLOGUE}

In this system, first year students will have 10 mini blocks called "FBS, Fundamental Biomed sciences" where each of them will get mark composed of paper based test (60%), practical test (~10%), and SOOCA (30%). SOOCA is kinda individual presentation test where each SOOCA, students have to study and understood extremely well on ~4 different clinical cases,but since we're first year students, we just have to learn the basic anatomy-histology-physiology stuffs, etc (Excludes treatment, pharmacology, etc). We have to make sure we practised to presents each of 4 cases to the jury duo and remember the brainstorming. During the test, we'll be asked to take a draw randomly to select which 1 of 4 cases we have to present to a random jury. It's though since often my friends failed to remember the case and he scored extremly bad marks, or if they don't understand really well, jury could minus their marks. SOOCA is so important because it composes 30% of total overall mark, and the we're not allowed to have a single E (<40) of the 10 FBS or some max 2 D's (<49), if we do, we have to repeat a FULL YEAR (2 smsters).

{CASE SUMMARY}

i got my first SOOCA around September 2011 and luckily i got nice jury and the easiest case to explain which i scored A pretty easy, while most of my friends also get good marks, some also experienced disastrous results. Before the first SOOCA, i heard from seniors how horror is SOOCA and since i score pretty easy, i quite underestimate SOOCA. I felt easy to get marks and so i go less diligent for the next couple FBS though i still manage to get average marks (A and BC). Next SOOCA is due 3rd January which is irritating to most of us since we only got the holidays from 23 dec- 2 jan. We got rigid tables and holiday is rare. We got our first "long" holiday but we have to study for SOOCA, so unfair to most of us. However, most of us did study their best for the SOOCA in their hometowns and holiday destinations. I'm also taking break on my native hometown and my spirit to study SOOCA is low. I underestimated it.

I did study but not in a level for a SOOCA. on 1st jan 2012, i flew back to Surabaya to finalise my preparations and I asked with my friends to practice together on 2nd Jan noon. On that practice, i just realized how my friends were far more prepared than me and how horrible is my preparation with less than 24 hours to go.

D-day, and i it's up my turn to take the draw, i got case #1. this case is fair, not too easy yet not the toughest. After i complete my mappings and enter the test room, which i don't know who the jury duo is previously, i was pretty nervous since i'm lack of confidence since i realized many people are better, but i did try my best to study allover late night after the practice. In the room, i only recognize one jury and i don't recognize the second one. As usual, each students were given 20 minutes to present. I did complete the presentation in a basic standard and horribly it was only 13 minutes! 7 minutes left and the second jury seemed to enjoy asking me questions. She's good in looking my lack of confidence and used it to press me on till i'm nervous on my own. The first jury (she doesn't recognize me anyway) did asked a questions which also exploits my lack of confidence. After the worst 7 minute ever and i step out of the room, i realize they just "slaughtered" me but since i think i completed the basic of the case, i should've score B at least.

few days later, the result is posted. I got kinda low mark, CD. So shocking!! I never expect an CD!! SOOCA is final decision and won't be doubtable since it's also a subjective test. Though CD is not a extreme danger to plunge me down, but it's a nightmare to me to score that. I'm shocked for few days, as my friends score quite good marks B's to A's even some of them got the lucky jury, but it's not an excuse for me since i know how is my effort.....

{REVIEW}

I prayed and argued with God for the result. Luckily, since my paper test is quite well, my final marks will be OK. The shock led me to change my philosophy of SOOCA and study. The next SOOCA is due on March 2012. This time, I had a good determination to overwhelm the failure before. I studied well and I use the final day to practice all over and finalize all with the costs of sleeping at 3 am and woke up 5 am next day but to re-practice all again. During the test, I got the toughest case this time but i'm prepared and the results is fantastic, A!!! I'm so happy and joy with it. Luckily on this, my paper test score only average marks since it's one of the hardest FBS and the SOOCA surely lifted the marks.

As soon as the A pops out, i then analyze the objective of my previous failure. Jesus is trying to save me from worst marks on the upcoming blocks which are far more difficult than the previous one including the disaster SOOCA. By that shock, ever since i studied the best i could for all tests and upcoming SOOCAs. I no longer underestimate SOOCA. Why he selects on the second SOOCA? I Realize that the paper tests on that SOOCA is quite well with A and BC. The SOOCA's CD did degrades my final mark to B and C but it's still the safe zone and those have low credits. The 3rd SOOCA which i succeed has lower paper test mark with high credit. By shocking the lazy me on the 2nd SOOCA, i change myself on study and my philosophy of not underestimating anything since it could turn lethal. And since that, i keep trying my best to study well for upcoming challenges to come.

Praise lord for his plans!! He always have a good plan behind every worst scenario we experience.

Experience 2. Roadway accident

(tired now, make it quick)

{CASE SUMMARY}

After a lab class, i offered a couple of my friend a ride home. Instead of using the usual way, somehow that day, something triggered me to use other road. On the course, i realize that course is only making me further from the destination and i'm looking for a U-turn. On that road, i found some cleft on the paving but it clearly had denying u-turn marks. So i kept going and i saw some clefts ahead with no marks....so i think it's OK to turn there and so i clicked the right blinker as preparation. Suddenly, a speedy bike speeds up on my right and crashes to me. I asked them to evacuate to the roadside, and somehow the medical spirit just kicks on by me to quickly asses their medical situation. only 1 was hurt with a super slight scratch and he deny my offer of medicine. They (3) people rests under the tree and one of them is calling his friend to assist. My car suffered quite a damage while the person (i'm going to speak of the first person since he's the culprit) bike is intact. Based on my parents instructions, they asked me just to let go people since it's a good way to behave and i don't exploit people. so i explain to him it's OK for him to cover the repair costs as he wanted or if he can't afford, he can just leave. Somehow, even since the first second of crash, i talked to them just like a doctor speaking to a patient with full patience. it's the same tone i speak to my lecturers, the most professional way to speak possible. Suddenly, he blames me for it?! He tells me that it's not allowed to turn there, i was boiled but somehow, out of control, i just cannot show anger or speak bad words,etc...somehow something holds my anger and kept my patience high.....honestly, something holds me. But i don't realize it much. I surveyed people around the road where they say it's common for people to U-turn there. Anyway, that bike is still wrong, he's not supposed to drive the right side, bikes are asked to ride on left side and it's in regulations. The man says he had a police friend and challenged me to go the police. I'm no fear, BUT, previously, my parents had ordered me to end things up and not the police since they're famed for helping bikes and blaming cars all the time and they always ask for other costs. I'm so obey to my parents i reject to police. and my mental seemed not good enough. Instead the culprit is seemed to control the situation. He keeps angry with my and say dirty words to me and my friend which is much more puzzled than me.(hahaha). but when i try to call inside my well covered glass car, i saw them giggles like a champ. SHIT!!!! They're controlling me but i know something else is controlling me from my way to speak to behave...something i cannot explain but exists (not my mum of course). But again, something kept me in professional line. Since it's close to my college, i ask them to go there and check for the wounds and before, we record each other's data. As we split up and they go the medical room, i got to the medical college and asks a navy officer which acts as college security to help to mediate the event. The officer agreed and as the culprit friend who comes forward (the culprit is on the medical room) and tries to anger, the officer angers him back! haha. I offered 40.000 for further medical relieve to the culprit as good intention but he rejects and laughs easily at me. i'm so fuming, but weird, something again is holding me. the officer doesn't looked too good to defend me but he did helped to prevent the culprit from overwhelm me. Good mediator. The asshole culprit is asking staggering 500.000 (US$ 55) for "pain" or deal at police. I'M EXTREMELY FUMED but all i could release from the anger is only high voice, not bad words, not any other. Even the nurses and doctors giggles when i told them the story, it's out of sense 500k. In the end, i agreed to let the mediator judge the best number and i'll go with it. the mediator speaks half, 250k (anyway, i settle to pay as the doctors, navy guys, friends etc suggests me in a private conversation to pay some rather than making it a longer method of solving). Previously i already announced i will pay the medical costs since i'm the one asking him to get there. The assholes are laugh in joy as i walk but he didn't realized i kept watching their behavior in techniques. my cars repair costs me appx US$ 150 and one week.

For those in my country, will no doubt about my solving problem but probably the 250k money since it's definitely too much for light scratch (not more than soccer scratch). But anyway it is settled.

For those in other countries (especially in west n modern countries: US, UK, Canada, Australia, Japan, Singapore, EU, Korea, etc), would probably laughs now why i just don't bring it to the law. Ok, if u are this categories, i will not explain why and u will understood if u stays here too. And trust me it's the best way i've taken.

{REVIEW}

Ok, now the review. What's with God plan this time? honestly i'm so fumed i anger on myself why i can't challenge that ****-ing guy? Even the night i consult my my friend about this event and my actions on it. I protested to God.

Few months before i had asked in church to give my life to serve God and his ways. I also tried to read the scriptures, at least a small part every night. And i sing worships, prayers etc daily since i love it too. Few days before this incident, it's easter and that time, we are refreshed about God give his life for the sinful people and the rises on the 3rd day.

the full 24 hours i confront to God with the incident. I felt stupid not to challenge that guy. Now, some 36 hrs since the incident, I think i got some answers. I realized it's Jesus is with me all the incident. He prevents me from returning the bad words and anger. If i did anger that time, maybe it would end up in fight and i'm not a good fighter and even i'm the victim, here, many x-factors would easily turn me from victim to defendant, if so, i don't know what will happened now anyway, will i make this post?maybe not.

It is extremely impossible that other than God can hold me from exploding myself to that guy. He also leads me to confront the man in my college since i can ask assistance from a navy officer where i study to mediate and that's million times and maybe the best way rather than police. it's better to let the culprit go and feel like a hero by taking my money despite his mistakes but i'm comfortable.......comfortable??yes, few months ago, a chinese college student (from other college) is shot dead and robbed from it's car. People suspects that it's a revenge from xx....

I think it's better to let him go and i can recover much easily without harm on me.

He also realized it's a matter of time until i got exploded and challenged them further, if not of the doctors, navy officer, friends, interns that help calm me down personally and suggests me to just pay the money anyway. They have super important part in bringing all this down to end.

anyway, i manage to pray for that guy as i try to do what the bible had stated to pray for our enemies. and i pray for god to help me to forgive that guy. Honestly,yes i'm fumed w/ that person but i believe in scriptures which states that revenge is the right of God. Let God do his job, I may not intercept His job.

other aspects, i get a valuable experience from this. I could go home to analyze the chain of events and how to overcome it next time w/o walking away from the Scriptures. About the repairs, previously i'm a super dumb anything about cars (i'm a fan of military and modern war history so i know thousand time more of fighter planes, warships, rifles, world war 2.....rather than commercial cars as what most male teens would know) and since i had to repair, i studied many info about cars in the workshop. I learn to to become extremely patient to others as what a future doctor MUST able to do it.

Many people don't knw how i care much about psychology. It's been an interest on me since junior HS and i'm so enjoyed to listen and helped my friends from their ordeal. it's been an honor to listen to my friends. But i'm a person who knows psychology most from personal experience analyzation and people's statement and experience. From this, i realized about shock, trauma, etc (luckily i manage to cope myself from these). it's been a long interest on my about event trauma (ex: why do rape victims were reported that they will become stressful and trauma to boys, even those she know well) and from this event, i got a dozens of new data that could help to fill my thirst of psychology and perhaps, Jesus is preparing me to receive a new "patient" one day where this experience will help me to help others. As stated in 1 Corinthians 10, Jesus will ALWAYS open a escape way for us from our ordeal.

{FINAL STATEMENT}

This post tells a small piece of how Jesus change me up. He makes me better and better by a chain of events. But i know God is always by my side, watching me and help me out of the ordeal as i can take the lesson God wants to teach me from that particular event. From a lazy guy to become more diligent and from a tempered guy to become more patient as I have to be as a doctor in the future to come. Experience are priceless. U can't buy them. but they are extremely valuable for your life.

life's short. Human is a complex mixture of art. Love it, and love the creator. PEACE

{END}

PS: THIS POST HAD NOT YET BEEN REVIEWED BY MYSELF YET AND SO PLEASE CONSIDER IF SOME GRAMMAR,VOCABS, OR THE STORY IT SELF IS TYPED IN UNSATISFYING WAY. POSTS ARE FINAL WHEN THIS MESSAGE IS REMOVED.

STOP PRESS!!!

SUGGESTIONS FOR THE POST, PLEASE ..PLEASE.. PLEASE.. COMMENT AND SHARE YOUR OPINIONS!!!

Ospek 1 Univ Hang Tuah: PRODAMMABA 2011

OSPEK. yak! sbuah "pesta" wajib yg diselenggarakan nyaris oleh seluruh univ seantero Indonesia. Dimanapun, smua maba (mahasiswa baru) psti tw ospek itu.

saya seneng banget pas diterima di FK (F.Kedokteran) UHT (univ.Hang tuah) saat sekitar april 2011. tapi ksenangan itu tdk brthan lama, trutama ps saya memkirkan ospekny kira" gimana oleh sebuah universitas milik Angkatan laut itu. smua yg terburuk sudah melintas...hiiiyyy

Ospek di UHT disebut PRODAMMABA (Program Pendampingan Mahasiswa Baru). Sebelum Prodam, kita diharuskan masuk saat 16/8 jam 7.00 utk latihan upcara. Pada hari pertama kami bisa berkumpul ini, kami sudah disambut dgn bentakan" dri para menwa (resimen mahasiswa-smcm polisi kampus) utk brdiri yg bagus, baris, dsb. Bisa ditebak, kejemur sdh hal pasti slama latihan itu. Tapi untuk hari prtma ini sbnrny ngak berat. kami pulang skitr jam 10.30 saja dan mudah untuk berknalan dgn siapapun disekitar yg kita temui, mulai jurusan PDP, FTIK,FH,FKG,FK, dll. Kita juga diberi lembar jadwal ospek lengkap. Sejauh mata memandang, stidkny tidak ad jadwal aneh", smua terlihat baik" saja.

Hal ini berlangsung sampai saat upacara keesokannya. Kami diharuskan hadir dri jam 6.00 utk gladi kotor (ga penting banget pagi gitu disuru dateng) dll...sejak menginjakan kaki, kami langsung diarahkan ke lapangan utk berdiri dan baris, kmudian hingga skitar 7.00 baru latihan hingga jam 9 lebih. capeknya bukan main, kami berdiri berjemur (jam 8 lebih sudah agak panas) nonstop, hingga panitia akhirnya iba juga untk memberi kami ksempatan duduk sebentar. Untungny, upacara berlangsung cukup khidmat, kecuali bosanny kami mndngrkan "sepatah kata" dlm upcara itu.

Setelah libur slama 2 hari, akhirnya ospek juga (mkn lbih cocok disebut pre-ospek krn belum upacara pembukaan) pada hari minggu. Hari ini tidak terlalu berat, hanya ada gladi kotor upcara lagi, tpi ini upacara pembukaan PRODAM. Acara dilanjutkn dgn ceramah dri rektor serta pembagian klompok yg berdasarkan nama2 kapal perang, semisal KRI Yos Sudarso, KRI Makassar, KRI Hassanudin, KRI Diponegoro, KRI Teluk Penyu, KRI Rencong, KRI Dewaruci, KRI Teluk Bayur, KRI Surabaya, dan KRI Menggala.

saya tergabung dlm klompok 4, yaitu KRI Diponegoro. masing2 klompok berjumlah sekitar 50-60an org dari berbagai fakultas, dan total maba ada 667 tahun ini. setiap klompok dituntut utk membuat sbuah yel2. Unikny, kami tidak menerima kekerasan atau bentakan" berlebihan yg kerap diterima maba dalam ospek. Justru kami agk trhibur dgn MC yg menekankan kekeluargaan dan kocak. (Namanya Kak Kiki-asliny Gusti Ayu).

Senin 22-8-2011 (Day 1)

Setelah upacara pembukaan PRODAMMABA

(to be continued)